Midterm predictions6/6/2023 ![]() The 2018 midterm election was a particularly strong year for Democrats, with women’s D-R margin far exceeding that for the 2014 midterms, while men’s negative D-R margin was noticeably smaller. In each case, the D-R margins are positive for women and negative for men. This is evident in Figure 1, which shows the D-R (Democratic minus Republican) vote margins by gender for national cumulative House of Representatives votes in 20 and for the 2020 presidential election. When examining national numbers, women overall have voted for Democrats over Republicans in every presidential and midterm election since 1982. In order to assess the role that women have in determining the midterm election results, it is important to view gender differences in both voting preferences and turnout. Women lean toward Democratic candidates, and turn out to vote at higher rates ![]() These simulations make clear that more pronounced turnout and Democratic voting preferences among women would benefit Democrats considerably. Through simulations, it shows how increased women’s turnout and voter preferences could impact national election results and specific battleground states. This analysis looks at both, using the most recent eligible voter populations compiled by the Census Bureau’s September 2022 Current Population Survey and applying to them voter turnout rates from the 2018 midterm and assumptions about 2022 voting. They also do not show how those polling results apply to eligible voters. While polls indicate that women are more likely than men to favor Democrats in a national generic ballot for House of Representatives candidates, these do not reflect actual votes. And according to an Economist/YouGov poll conducted October 29 through November 1, 60% of women said that views on abortion mattered a lot in their voting, compared to 40% of men. A recent survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation shows that half or more of respondents are more motivated to vote in this year’s midterms because of abortion concerns, especially among women. The fear among many pro-choice voters, particularly women, is that a Republican-dominated Congress could use this ruling as a premise to enact a nationwide abortion ban.
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